Should I Wait for Prices to Crash Before I Buy A House?

By in News

• Waiting Out for a Housing Crash •

Two years in, this decade has already brought a global pandemic, record-setting inflation, rising interest rates, and a country more divided than ever before. So why not a housing crash too?

Americans who lived through the 2008 crisis may be watching the red-hot market starting to cool and getting flashbacks. And for prospective homeowners, it might be appealing to put your plans on pause until the market bottoms out so you can snag a house at a great price.

But experts say there are good reasons to believe that, however this shakes out, it won’t be a return to the mid-200s recession. Here are 3 simple reasons why this housing downturn is nothing like 2008.

1. Lenders stopped being so lax 

A huge contributor to the housing crisis in 2008 was dicey lending practices within the financial industry. Years of deregulation made it easier — and more profitable — to hand out risky loans.

The Dodd-Frank Act, which was signed into law in 2010 aimed to prevent that by increasing oversight in the industry. While the act’s effectiveness has been called into question over the years, it has undoubtedly forced lenders to be stricter about their lending practices, which means far fewer borrowers are likely to land in hot water.

The median credit score of newly originated mortgages was 776 in the first quarter of the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But nearly 70% of new mortgage holders had a credit score of 760 or more. The New York Fed added in its quarterly analysis that, “credit scores on newly originated mortgages remain very high and reflect continuing high lending standards.”

2. Homeowners have more equity 

The onset of the pandemic could have been catastrophic for the housing market if millions of homeowners had no choice but to default on their loans.

Fortunately, mortgage forbearance programs allowed struggling borrowers to pause their payments until they could get back on their feet. And it worked: by the end of March, the share of mortgage balances 90-plus days past due remained at 0.5% — a historic low.

And compared to 2010, when delinquencies in single-family homes hit a 30-year high of 11.36%, the rate was just 2.13% in the first quarter of 2022.

On top of that, rising home prices have translated into increased equity for homeowners. In total, mortgage holders now have $2.8 trillion more in tappable equity compared to a year before, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. That’s a 34% increase and more than $207,000 in additional available equity per borrower.

3. Increasing supply to meet huge demand 

“It’s not always as simple as supply and demand — but it almost always is,” host Dave Ramsey said on The Ramsey Show earlier this month. Ramsey says the major issue in 2008 was there was a “tremendous oversupply because foreclosures went everywhere and the market just froze.” The crisis wasn’t down to the economy or interest rates, it was “a real estate panic.”

In comparison, now, there’s a huge demand and a shortage of supply. But the Federal Reserve’s efforts to dampen demand by raising interest rates are starting to work. And new housing is starting to slowly come on the market as well. What Ramsey says we’re seeing now is a softening in the rate of increase of prices, but he doesn’t anticipate they’ll go down like they did in 2008.

The Bottom Line 

Though home prices are softening in some San Diego neighborhoods, today’s housing market is different from the Great Recession housing bubble. Your home is your biggest investment, so make the most of it. Buy your new house with the power of cash, move in faster than ever before, and let a local Reali Agent handle the rest.

Call us at (858) 880-0195 or email portia.green@compass.com to get started with Reali today. 

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About The Author
Portia Green, REALTOR®

Portia Green is a highly experienced full-time REALTOR® specializing in the representation of Sellers, heralded by her clients as data-driven and an effective negotiator. Producing $25M total in residential sales volume, Portia's goal is to help her clients achieve the best results when selling their homes and to make their experience an enjoyable one. She has successfully sold real estate since 2008 and has gained an in-depth knowledge of local real estate markets & seasonal trends. Portia has achieved a 100% customer satisfaction rating and wants to share her expertise & personal service with you in the sale of your home. When listing your home with Portia Green and Compass, you'll receive the hands-on service you need and desire. Portia will help you manage the entire process of selling your home from pricing, preparing and staging the house, to marketing, negotiating offers, inspections, all the way to closing. She will recommend skilled vendors for any job needed, personally host Open Houses, and ensure that all showings are accompanied. At Compass, Portia offers a wise no-nonsense way to sell your home for the best price and the least hassle. With a keen eye for staging & preparing listings to maximize Buyer appeal, all of Portia Green's listings are professionally photographed using HDR (High Dynamic Range) photography to provide the highest quality photos in the industry. Professionally printed marketing materials are prepared for all Open Houses. We also capture a 3D scan of your home that creates an interactive walkthrough online along with a custom-designed floor plan and targeted digital marketing campaigns on Google & the most popular social media channels. Compass participates in the Multiple Listing Service, which is the local real estate database of homes listed for sale that all REALTORS® use in helping their Buyers find houses. Your home will appear on every real estate website, in its best light, making a stunning camera-ready debut. Portia Green's home valuation expertise and extensive experience in comparative market analysis will help price your home accurately. She has refined her skills to help you pinpoint which features of your home will result in more showings and better results. Her mantra is for you to be ready to sell your home and feel good about that first. Portia knows that home inspectors always find a problem; that drones take some of the best photos in town; and that her eyebrows will grow to the floor in the time it takes her to read everything that's happening with your HOA, but that doesn't mean she won't do it anyway. Eyebrows be damned. You'll always need a place to unplug, connect, dream, grow, or just be yourself. That makes what Portia does even more meaningful. She’s ready to go the extra mile to help you find just the place. Whether you're selling your very first home, offloading an investment property, or want a vacation getaway with passive income, she is attentive to the details of every home sale. Portia helps busy people navigate this crazy real estate market like a pro, so don't be shy. Every great relationship starts with free advice and a friendly chat. Ask as many questions as you need to. Selling houses is her jam! www.portia.realtor